Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Im not happy with the way things are now. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. But thats not the picture I look at. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. I think thats what the world needed. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Theres too much corruption. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. About The Author. 'I Should Start Voting'. I dont watch TV. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. We were as far down to five cooks last year. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. I am under that impression. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. It was easy. He didnt vote in 2016 either. We need election reform.. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. . But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Its just stupid, she said. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Its horrible. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Right now, its horrible. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. That is, until this year. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . I think it worked out without me.. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. I got a life. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He is his own worst enemy.. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Its gone, Jacobs said. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. On . There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Im not happy with either party. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. By Cara Ding. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. It will cycle through. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. deputy lieutenant bedfordshire, nuclear materials courier training academy,

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